Think tank Methods used in Futuring

 

Think Tank Methods

 

A Think tank is an organization that engages in public policy research analysis with study subjects of every imaginable area (Clark & Roodman, 2013). Think tanks come in various sizes and contain members with varying skill and experience levels. The common factor is that all use a specific method in delivering their results. Measuring a think tank's efficacy requires understanding its methods (Clark & Roodman, 2013). Two popular methods are Delphi, and Reverse  Planning Technique, sometimes called backward planning.

Delphi Method

Developed during the Cold War, the Delphi think tank method focuses on problem-solving and decision-making (Ciałkowska et al., 2008). The Delphi primary objective and use case focus on complex and ambiguous problems exceeding the capability of a single person (Hsu & Sandford, 2007). Another Delphi characteristic is the use of consensus (Hsu & Sandford, 2007). The challenge of reaching an agreement can be achieved through specific communication processes while ensuring that no one person's idea can dominate during the process (Hsu & Sandford, 2007). The primary four Delphi characteristics are (a) anonymity, (b) interaction with controlled feedback, (c) statistical group response, and (d) the use of experts (Goodman, 1987). A well-orchestrated Delphi method is applicable to graduate research, precisely that of a doctoral dissertation (Skulmoski et al., 2007).

Reverse Planning Method

The reverse planning, or backward planning method, focuses on beginning with the end goal (Stutz et al., 2021). The basic thinking process involves identifying and understanding the end goal to gain a more nuanced and complex solution set (Joseph & Davies, 1990). The characteristics of the backward planning method are; (a) tracing the steps taken in reaching the current position, (b) critical review of the successes, failures, and adjustments made in each step, (c) identifying the integrations required in each step, and (d) defining the beginning of the process (Joseph & Davies, 1990). The backward planning method used to achieve industrial process automation (Joseph & Davies, 1990) supports its consideration for a doctoral dissertation using the design science research method (Perryman, 2021).